(1) Global cement demand in 2023
According to On Field Investment Research, the global cement industry output growth will slow down in 2023. Cement demand in North America fell by 2% overall, and annual production in Europe and China fell. Cement sales in India continue to rise. Demand in the Middle East and North Africa and Southeast Asia has declined, while demand for cement in Mongolia, Ethiopia and other countries has increased significantly.
(2) Global cement prices in 2023
In 2023, the price performance of mature markets and emerging markets will be different. In mature markets, price increases due to soaring energy costs are evident, especially in Europe (impact of carbon policy) and North America. The overall trend of cement prices in emerging markets is stable. . Chinese cement prices are under pressure.
(3) Global cement industry output forecast in 2024
Overall production will rise slightly in 2024, driven by India, the Middle East and Africa. Production in China and Europe is expected to fall slightly.
In emerging markets, China is expected to decline by 5%, other developing countries will grow by 4%, India will grow by 7%, and the Middle East and Africa will grow by 3%. In 2023, Mexico and Brazil (with slight growth) are in better shape than the rest of South America.
In mature markets, cement production is expected to decline by 2-3% in 2024. North America is expected to be more resilient than Western Europe, which is expected to decline by 5%. Southern Europe is better than Northern Europe.
(4) Global cement price forecast in 2024
In emerging markets, cement prices in the Middle East, Africa, India and Latin America are expected to rise further due to stable sales and currency depreciation; prices in Asia and Central and Eastern Europe are under pressure.
In mature markets, prices and margins are expected to recover due to tight supply in the United States and limited carbon quotas in Europe.
(5) Global cement industry profit margin in 2023
In emerging markets, margins are expected to be broadly stable in Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and Southwest Asia, driven by solid cement volumes and prices and lower energy costs than last year. Margins in East and Southeast Asia are expected to decline slightly due to lower capacity utilization and higher price volatility.
In mature markets, margins are expected to be relatively stable due to solid prices and low energy costs.
In 2024, the global cement industry will operate stably and strive to enhance cash generation capabilities.
Global demand (excluding China) is expected to grow by 2-3% in 2024, driven by growth in India, the Middle East and Africa. Cement production in China and Europe is expected to decline by an average of 5%. Demand in North America and Latin America is expected to be broadly stable.
Energy cost inflation is expected to ease through 2024, with prices and profits in local currency terms remaining resilient. The global cement industry is shifting its focus from volume to value. Production is expected to decline in East and Central Asia due to overcapacity and weak demand. Production declined in some European markets.
Overall, prices and profits in the global cement industry will remain relatively stable in 2024, and cash flow maintenance is crucial.